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2	Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change and Security Project Nonpartisan, non-advocacy Facilitating dialogue between research and policy communities Lee H. Hamilton: Wilson Center President
3	Presentation Outline Environment and Conflict: A Range of Links Scarcity and Conflict Abundance and Conflict Environmental Pathways to Peace Key Challenges and Questions
4	Environment and Conflict: A Range of Links Environmental damage from warfare Environment as tool of war Forests as base for combatants Combat zone as conservation zone
5	Natural Resources and Conflict: The Scarcity Thesis Environmental degradation/depletion and violent conflict Almost exclusive focus on developing countries Focus on renewable resources and VIOLENT conflict Lots of “small c” conflict: not well-integrated into analysis
6	Environmental Scarcity and Conflict from Thomas F. Homer-Dixon (1999)
7	The Environment and Conflict Thesis: Case Study Conclusions The environment is neither a necessary nor sufficient cause of violent conflict “Underlying, subnational, and diffuse” environmental contributions to violent conflict Indirect role in intrastate, rather than interstate, violent conflict Fisheries, arable land, water, and deforestation are the most salient renewable resources
8	Environment and Conflict Conclusions (cont.) Environmental scarcity contributes to: Migration (marginal lands, urban areas) Undercutting economic activity Resource capture by elites Weakening of states If adaptation is not sufficient, these social effects in turn can exacerbate existing ethnic and/or income divisions, which are more proximate causes of conflict
9	Abundance Rather Than Scarcity Forests, diamonds, gold, coltan Fungible, portable, and lucrative Worth fighting over DRC Liberia Funding the fighting Cambodia Liberia
10	Shortcomings of Environment and Conflict Work Scarcity vs. abundance: a false dichotomy Looking to levels beyond the state: small “c” livelihood conflict Putting poverty and development back in: the Southern perspective Intervening variables as key for barking dogs: governance Not just local affairs: consumption and international footprints Data limitations for large N Cooperation, not just conflict
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12	Environmental Pathways to Peace Utilize the logic of environmental interdependence and the need for ongoing interactions to talk across lines of tension State-to-state Civil society-to-civil society Use cooperative efforts and dialogue to manage natural resources as a way to transform insecurities and create more peaceful relations between parties in dispute
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15	Environmental Cooperation and Natural Resources Management as Conflict Prevention
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21	Environment as Lifeline in Times of Conflict
22	Environmental Dialogue as Lifeline in Times of Conflict and Tension “Picnic Table” talks Good Water Makes Good Neighbors U.S-Norway-Russia in Russian Northwest (AMEC) Indus Water Treaty
23	Environment as Essential Ingredient to Achieving Peace
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25	Water didn’t get you into this mess, but… Palestine-Israel India-Pakistan
26	Environment as Post-Conflict Confidence Builder
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30	Key Challenges and Questions Transparency and participation: finding the right mix and the right time – what is the best mix of state and civil society? Doing environmental peacemaking without calling it environmental peacemaking or environmental security Variable chances of success along conflict continuum: are some times better than others for NRM’s peacemaking qualities? Variable peacemaking potential among resources: is water better than land or forests better than minerals?
31	Key Challenges and Questions Overcoming barriers to cooperation – playing well together across institutional and topical lines UN, regional orgs, US, USAID, NGOs, academics NRM, development, conflict, governance Shortage of diverse skill sets Improving donor coordination and duration of commitment Staying behind the scenes: U.S. can’t always be out front How to demonstrate/measure success if success is something that didn’t happen (null case)